Exit poll: Nearly a third of gays voted for GOP

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Good analysis. Everyone is trying to put their own spin in this data. Be very careful!!!!

Exit poll: Nearly a third of gays voted for GOP

By Liz Goodwin

Exit polling commissioned by the major cable news networks has found that 31 percent of people who identified as gay, lesbian or bisexual voted for Republicans on Election Day. That represents a big uptick from the 24 percent of gays who voted for the GOP in 2006 and from only 19 percent who did so in 2008. The trend appears to bear out pre-Election Day predictions from gay rights organizers that gay voters were angry and disenchanted with Democrats for not delivering on promises to the community.

It's not clear how widespread the trend is. Hunter College Professor Ken Sherrill, who studies the gay electorate, tells The Upshot that the sample size was small, so the magnitude of gays' shift toward the GOP may be less pronounced than it appears. (About 110 respondents of the 3,800 included in the cable exit polls identified as gay, lesbian or bisexual, representing about 3 percent of all voters.)

He also thinks the shift is more related to the economic downturn than to dissatisfaction with the pace of gay-rights legislation, since there was no reason for voters to believe GOP candidates would be more amenable than Democrats to LGBT issues such as gay marriage or ending the military ban on openly gay service.

"There's no good reason to suggest that the shift was greater than the shift in the electorate as a whole," Sherrill said. "Given there is every reason to believe that LGB voters were as affected or more affected by the economic downturn, it's not surprising to see a shift."

(UPDATE: After reviewing the full data, Sherrill says there was a disproportionate drop in Democratic support among LGB voters compared to Hispanic, black, and young voters. Though the sample size is still very small and thus there's a large margin of error, Sherrill now says the drop may be attributed to "dissatisfaction with the pace of change on LGB rights over the past two years.")

Even with the shift, gay voters remain among the top five demographic groups that vote Democratic.

Jimmy LaSalvia, the executive director of GOProud, a group that represents gay conservatives, told Tim Mak of FrumForum: "Gay and lesbian voters are just like other voters in the electorate -- many of them are astonished about the growth in government, and the misguided priorities of this administration. These numbers don't surprise me at all."

(Photo of a young gay voter in Chicago telling reporters he is angry with Democrats: AP)