Final Quinnipiac Poll finds statistical tie; Ohio Poll has Republican ahead
Updated: Monday, November 1, 2010 03:03 PM
The Columbus Dispatch
Dead heat. That's what the final Quinnipiac Poll calls the Ohio governor's race today.Republican John Kasich by 4 points. That's what the Ohio Poll says today.
In the Quinnipiac measure, Kasich holds a 1-point lead over Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, who was down 10 points in the survey less than two weeks ago. The 6 percent who say they remain undecided apparently will determine the race, which now has Kasich up 47 percent to 46 percent.
"The governor's race is a statistical tie. It could go either way," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Gov. Ted Strickland has come from far back. The question is whether he can get over the hump. He has momentum on his side. John Kasich has the historical tendency of undecided voters to break against well-known incumbents at the very end of a campaign."
The Quinnipiac Poll released Tuesday had Kasich up by 6 points; he was ahead by 17 in mid-September.
The Ohio Poll has Kasich ahead by 52 percent to 47.7 percent, with 0.3 percent backing others.
Today's findings follow yesterday's Dispatch Poll showing Kasich ahead by just 2 points, which was within that survey's margin of error.
The race is tight in the Connecticut university's poll even though Kasich leads by an amazing 17 points among independents, usually a sure sign of victory. But Strickland does somewhat better among his fellow Democrats than Kasich does with his GOP colleagues.
Strickland's favorability has rebounded remarkably with Quinnipiac to where 45 percent now turn thumbs up and the exact same percentage turn thumbs down. Kasich is plus 10, 47 percent to 37 percent.
Republican Rob Portman continues to cruise in the U.S. Senate race. The former congressman and Bush administration official leads Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by 56 percent to 37 percent. Portman was ahead by 17 points Tuesday. It's 60 percent to 39 percent in the Ohio Poll.
"The Senate race has never been close and looks more like what we often see with a popular incumbent seeking re-election rather than an open seat contest." Brown said.
Quinnipiac's telephone poll, including cell phones, of 848 likely Ohio voters from last Monday through Saturday has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The poll has more Democrats than Republicans, but a percentage breakdown was not immediately available.
The poll is at www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1530
The Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, had Kasich ahead by 8 points Oct. 15. The same survey conducted for the Ohio Newspapers Organization put the Republican in front by only 2 points in a survey published Oct. 24.
The Ohio Poll, which also includes cell phones, of 930 likely Ohio voters was conducted from Wednesday through Sunday and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Its sample had 48 percent Republicans, 45 percent Democrats and 7 percent independents.
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