Report predicts 2% slip in central Ohio; local agents more optimistic
By Jim Weiker
After another mediocre year of central Ohio housing news, a report issued this morning says it will only get worse.
The report, by the California real-estate service Clear Capital, predicts that Columbus-area home prices will drop by 2 percent this year, the 28th largest drop among 50 cities studied.
The company based its forecast on 20 economic factors such as income, unemployment, mortgage rates and new construction permits.
Other observers agree that home prices in central Ohio and elsewhere won’t rise until employment picks up and foreclosures decline.
“Housing prices could continue to slip down in 2012,” said Teri Felix, executive vice president of Home Value Insurance Co., which last year began selling a policy in Ohio designed to protect homeowners against a decline in property value. “There’s still too much uncertainty in the economy, and foreclosures need to be worked through the system.”
Home prices dropped dramatically in the Columbus area and throughout the nation between 2006 and 2009, and have muddled along since. Clear Capital found that central Ohio home prices dropped an additional 3.5 percent in 2011, which is roughly consistent with Columbus Board of Realtors figures.
“The average selling price has steadily decreased since the end of 2005, but I believe we’ll see a flattening of prices in 2012,” said Milt Lustnauer, a RE/MAX Premier Choice agent in Upper Arlington and this year’s treasurer of the Columbus Board of Realtors.
Lustnauer and Chris Pedon, the board’s president-elect, say a decline in homes for sale will help balance supply and demand and, they hope, lead to a rise in prices.
“I’m hoping, now that the inventory’s starting to shrink, that we’ll see some of that pricing go back up,” said Pedon, a Bexley Real Living HER agent.
Central Ohio agents are also encouraged by the volume of Columbus-area home sales in 2011, which could show the first year-over-year gain since 2005 when final figures are released in a few weeks.
The Columbus Board of Realtors and other area organizations will present their own real-estate forecast Tuesday.
One big drag on prices continues to be foreclosures. Clear Capital estimates that 34 percent of homes sold in central Ohio are bank repossessions, which pull down prices of nearby homes.
Nationwide, Clear Capital forecasts a stabilizing of home prices in 2012, but estimates vary widely by community.
The company predicts Orlando, Fla., will show the biggest price gain, 11.7 percent. At the bottom is Atlanta, where Clear Capital predicts prices will slide 14.4 percent.
The firm estimates that Cincinnati prices will drop 2.2 percent while Cleveland prices rise 4.2 percent and Dayton prices gain 1.4 percent.
jweiker@dispatch.com
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