NPR: What A Coin Toss Has To Do With The Housing Market (Recovery)

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by David Kestenbaum

It's been almost five years since the housing bubble popped. And, with a glut of homes still on the market, housing prices could fall further. Why is it taking so long for the housing market to sort itself out?

The answer may have something to do with a coin toss.

I recently visited Eric Johnson, a professor at Columbia's Business School. He offered me a sweet bet on the flip of a coin. If the coin came up heads, I would win $6. If it came up tails, I would lose $1.

I told him I'd take the bet.

But then he changed the terms — if the coin came up heads, I would win $6. If it came up tails, I would lose $4. That bet I didn't like.

Of course, this is irrational. The bet is still very much in my favor. If I took the bet 1,000 times, I'd almost certainly make a nice profit.

Still, Johnson said a lot of people are like me: They won't take that bet. So I went out on the street to test this out on random people.

I introduced myself to Frank Blake, a guy who makes his living as a stuntman, jumping through windows and crashing cars. I offered him the bet — told him I'd pay him $15 if he won, and he'd only have to pay me $10 if he lost.

No deal.

"The $15 makes no difference in terms of gaining it," he told me. "But losing the $10 in my pocket does."

Lots of other people turned down the bet, too.

As it turns out, our brains feel losses and gains unevenly: Losing feels worse than winning feels good.

So now — as promised — back to housing.

In a down market, people really don't want to sell, because selling feels like losing.

Chris Mayer, professor of real estate at Columbia Business School, found evidence for this fear of losses when he studied the Boston condominium bubble in the '80s.

He would compare two basically identical condos. The owners of both had paid off their mortgages. But one had bought at the peak of the market. That person, he found, would stubbornly ask for a higher price, and keep his condo on the market longer than the other person, who had bought at a lower price. (Here's the study.)

"The overall magnitude of this effect is very big," Mayer told me. "This is an important factor in how housing markets operate."

There are certainly other reasons the housing market is taking so long to sort out. Some people are stuck financially with their mortgages, for example.

But this psychological quirk is also slowing the healing process. It makes people reluctant to lower the asking price on their homes, which in turn contributes to the glut of houses on the market.

"It's sort of like having a Band-Aid, where you know you would be better off if you just pulled it off at once," Johnson said. "But instead what you do is you tend to pull it off very slowly, if at all."

It's unclear why our brains are wired this way — why we overemphasize losses. Johnson says it could go back millions of years, to when a losing bet was way more serious.

Millions of years ago, we were avoiding animals that wanted to eat us. Today, we're selling houses.

But some part of our brains may be still be thinking about leopards in the trees.

HRC Welcomes Jeremy Bernard’s Appointment as White House Social Secretary

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 25, 2011
Paul Guequierre

HRC Welcomes Jeremy Bernard’s Appointment as White House Social Secretary

WASHINGTON – Today the White House announced that Jeremy Bernard, an accomplished businessman, nonprofit and government executive, was appointed White House Social Secretary. Bernard will become the first man and the first openly gay person to hold this important post. Human Rights Campaign President Joe Solmonese issued the following statement:

“Jeremy Bernard’s appointment is historic. We celebrate his appointment not merely because of the ground that he is breaking but because we know that he will serve the President and First Lady exceptionally well. He is competent, gracious under pressure and has distinguished himself as a leader in a number of fields. The President and Mrs. Obama could not have selected a better candidate to ensure that all Americans are welcomed to the ‘people’s house.’”

“Anyone who knows Jeremy Bernard knows he will be a great addition to the White House,” said Barry Karas, a friend of Bernard and a member of the HRC Board of Directors from Los Angeles. “Jeremy is a true joy to be around and work with. His appreciation of the arts and culture will make for grand events and his understanding of the important history of the White House and the Presidency will serve the American people well.”

“Jeremy’s warm personality and attention to detail will make families – both the First Family and the American family – feel at home,” said Dana Perlman, a friend of Bernard and a member of the HRC Board of Directors.

The Human Rights Campaign is America's largest civil rights organization working to achieve lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender equality. By inspiring and engaging all Americans, HRC strives to end discrimination against LGBT citizens and realize a nation that achieves fundamental fairness and equality for all.

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Columbus Dispatch: Foreclosures driving home sales in Ohio

The story is here

Foreclosures driving home sales in Ohio

Thursday, February 24, 2011 02:49 AM

By Jim Weiker

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

More evidence emerged today that Ohio's housing market is actually two markets: one made up of conventional homes and one consisting of foreclosed properties.

Figures released by the foreclosure-listing service RealtyTrac show a tremendous price gap between foreclosed sales and conventional sales in the state.

During the fourth quarter of 2010, foreclosed homes in Ohio sold on average for $79,611, which is 43percent less than the $138,740 fetched by homes that had not been foreclosed on.

Only Kentucky showed a higher gap between foreclosed- and conventional-home prices.

Overall, foreclosures accounted for 21 percent of Ohio home sales during the period, according to RealtyTrac.

Distressed sales, which include foreclosures and "short sales," account for about 37percent of all sales, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Even though there's a big gap between foreclosed prices and conventional prices, foreclosures can affect the price of other sales because such sales are used to set the value of other properties.

"With more than one in three sales distressed, that really starts to impact appraisals," said Rick Benjamin, president of the Columbus Board of Realtors.

While foreclosures are far more common in poorer parts of town, they can be found throughout central Ohio.

"We also see bank-owned properties in Tartan Fields, in Muirfield, in Upper Arlington, in New Albany and in Bexley," Benjamin said. "They're everywhere, and they'll be with us for a while."

The figures appeared a day after Ohio Association of Realtor figures were released showing that Ohio's home prices and sales are stabilizing.

In central Ohio, 1,034 homes were sold in January, down 3.3percent from January 2010. Homes sold on average for $145,600, off 0.3 percent from a year ago. Statewide, home sales rose 0.4 percent while average sales prices dropped 4.8 percent to $115,439.

While sales and prices aren't rising substantially, local and state officials say the figures illustrate that they have at least stopped their downward spiral.

"Certainly the fact that our level of sales were slightly higher than those of last January is outstanding news and provides optimism for our prospects in 2011," said Meg Hudson, president of the Ohio Association of Realtors.

Nationwide, sales increased 2.7 percent from last January, the first time in seven months that sales activity was higher than a year earlier.

The median price dropped to the lowest level in almost nine years, and the share of sales represented by foreclosures and other distressed properties climbed to a 12-month high.

"It is really a foreclosure-driven market," said Ethan Harris, head of developed markets at Bank of America Lynch Global Research in New York. "I don't think it is a sign of the market returning to health."

Information from Bloomberg News was included in this story.

jweiker@dispatch.com

Equality Hawaii, Human Rights Campaign Applaud Governor Neil Abercrombie for Signing Civil Unions Law

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 23, 2011

CONTACT: Don Bentz | Equality Hawaii |

CONTACT: Tony Wagner | Human Rights Campaign |

Equality Hawaii, Human Rights Campaign Applaud Governor Neil Abercrombie for Signing Civil Unions Law

Hawaii becomes 15th US jurisdiction to provide same-sex couples equal rights under the law

HONOLULU - Equality Hawaii, the state's largest lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) civil rights organization, and the Human Rights Campaign, the nation's largest LGBT civil rights organization, today congratulated Governor Neil Abercrombie, the Hawaii legislature and the people of Hawaii for enacting civil unions into law. The legislation provides that equal rights and responsibilities of married couples in Hawaii be afforded to thousands of non-married couples in the state – including same-sex couples. The law takes effect January 1, 2012.

"Today is a truly momentous day in Hawaii and a great step forward in our struggle towards full equality,” said Alan Spector, co-chair of Equality Hawaii. "After nearly two decades of debate and sometimes hostile rhetoric, the people of Hawaii have spoken loud and clear, and their words ring true with hope and optimism. Equality Hawaii thanks Governor Abercrombie, the legislature, HRC and all those who have joined this fight for equal rights over the last two decades."

“I have always believed that civil unions respect our diversity, protect people's privacy, and reinforce our core values of equality and aloha,” said Governor Neil Abercrombie. “For me, this bill represents equal rights for all the people of Hawaii. I appreciate all the time and effort invested by those who shared their thoughts and concerns regarding civil unions in Hawaii.”

The struggle for equal relationship recognition for same-sex couples began in Hawaii in 1993 when the Hawaii Supreme Court issued its landmark decision in Baehr v. Lewin, which found a constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples. In 1998, a constitutional amendment giving the legislature the authority to define marriage was approved by public vote, and the legislature subsequently enacted a law that defined marriage as between one man and one woman. Since then, attitudes towards same-sex relationship recognition in Hawaii and around the country have changed. Today, a vast majority of Hawaii residents support civil unions and a majority support marriage equality.

“Neil Abercrombie has been a stalwart advocate and friend of the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community for decades," said Joe Solmonese, president of the Human Rights Campaign. “Today he fulfills a major campaign promise to lay the issue of civil unions to rest, and finally provide equal rights and responsibilities to thousands of same-sex families in the Aloha State. The Human Rights Campaign thanks Equality Hawaii and other coalition partners, as well as our friends in the legislature for continuing to fight for what is right and just.”

“Equality is not simply an issue to be debated and voted on, it is an idea that all people are created equal no matter who they are,” said Rep. Blake Oshiro, House Majority Leader. “For too long, Hawaii’s same-sex families have languished as second-class citizens, denied equal civil rights and treatment under the law. Today, we bring the concepts of ohana and aloha back to the people of this great state. I thank Gov. Abercrombie, my colleagues in the legislature, Equality Hawaii and the Human Rights Campaign for their dedication to this cause and look forward to working with all advocates for equality in the future.”

The Human Rights Campaign and Equality Hawaii have worked closely together since 2008 to build both public and legislative support for civil unions. Through this joint effort, tens of thousands of phone calls, emails, postcards, petitions and handwritten letters have been sent to legislators urging them to approve this legislation. More on our work in Hawaii is at www.equalityhawaii.org, www.hrc.org/HawaiiWorkSummary and www.hrcbackstory.org/hawaii.

HRC and Equality Hawaii recognize the leadership of Majority Leader Blake Oshiro, Speaker Calvin Say, House Judiciary Chair Gilbert Keith-Agaran, Senate Judiciary Chair Clayton Hee, Senate Majority Leader Brickwood Galuteria and Senate President Shan Tsutsui, as well as all other legislators who stood up in the face of opposition. We also recognize the contributions of the ACLU of Hawaii, Da Moms, GLBT Caucus of the Hawaii Democratic Party, Interfaith Alliance of Hawaii, Lambda Legal, PFLAG-Oahu, Pride Alliance Hawaii, Pride at Work and UNITE HERE Local 5.

Hawaii joins thirteen other states plus Washington, D.C. with laws providing an expansive form of state-level relationship recognition for same-sex couples. Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont and Washington D.C. provide marriage to same-sex couples under state law. New York and Maryland recognize out-of-jurisdiction same-sex marriages, but do not provide marriage licenses to same-sex couples in state. Five other states—California, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, and Washington —provide same-sex couples with access to almost all of the state level benefits and responsibilities of marriage, through either civil unions or domestic partnerships. A new law providing for civil unions in Illinois will take effect on June 1st.

Colorado, Maine and Wisconsin provide same-sex couples with limited rights and benefits, not all rights provided to married couples. An attorney general opinion and subsequent court ruling in Rhode Island resulted in limited recognition of out-of-jurisdiction marriages of same-sex couples. California recognized marriage for same-sex couples between June and November of 2008, before voters approved Proposition 8, which purports to amend the state constitution to prohibit marriage equality. Couples married during that window remain married under California law, but all other same-sex couples can only receive a domestic partnership within the state. The state will recognize out-of-jurisdiction same-sex marriages that occurred before November 5, 2008 as marriages and those that occurred on or after November 5, 2008 as similar to domestic partnerships.

Same-sex couples do not receive federal rights and benefits in any state. For an electronic map showing where marriage equality stands in the states, please visit: www.HRC.org/State_Laws.

Equality Hawaii is dedicated to securing equality for all Hawaii's lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people and their families. www.EqualityHawaii.org

The Human Rights Campaign is America's largest civil rights organization working to achieve lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender equality. By inspiring and engaging all Americans, HRC strives to end discrimination against LGBT citizens and realize a nation that achieves fundamental fairness and equality for all. www.HRC.org

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HRC Releases Finalized Congressional Scorecard for 111th Congress

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 23, 2011
Michael Cole-Schwartz

HRC Releases Finalized Congressional Scorecard

Updated version includes “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” repeal votes

WASHINGTON – The Human Rights Campaign today released an updated version of its Congressional Scorecard for the 111th Congress including votes on “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” repeal near the close of the session.

“The 111th Congress will certainly go down in the history books as one of the most productive for the LGBT community,” said HRC President Joe Solmonese. “However much work remains to be done and new anti-LGBT congressional leaders create a much more challenging environment to achieve the kind of landmark progress we’ve seen.”

In the House, 161 members scored 90 percent or above, compared to 128 members in the 110th Congress. In the Senate, those scoring 90 percent and above rose from 32 to 36. But disturbingly, the number of Senators with a zero percent score nearly doubled from 16 to 29 this Congress. In addition, the number of House Members that consistently oppose LGBT equality remained essentially constant dropping slightly from 143 to 140.

With the new Congress, there is no denying that pro-LGBT numbers have shrunk on Capitol Hill. HRC’s analysis shows a pick-up of 53 House seats to anti-LGBT lawmakers as well as a 5 seat addition in the Senate. Not only do those opposing basic equality hold positions of power as House leaders and committee chairmen, their ranks have swollen to 225 – a solid majority of the chamber. This presents not just a roadblock to progress but also the threat of legislation that could be damaging to the community.

Votes and co-sponsorship of legislation scored in this Congress:

• Repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” to allow lesbians and gays to serve openly and honestly in the Armed Forces. The May House vote on Rep. Murphy’s DADT repeal amendment was scored as was the December vote on the stand-alone bill that ended up becoming law. In the Senate, the failed vote to proceed to debate on the Defense bill to which DADT repeal was attached was scored. Additionally, the two successful votes on the stand-alone bill (the motion to proceed and final passage) were scored.
• The Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act, to allow local law enforcement to access federal resources to investigate or prosecute violent crimes committed because of the victim’s sexual orientation or gender identity (the House votes for final passage and the motion to recommit were scored as was the Senate vote on Sen. Leahy’s hate crimes amendment);
• Co-sponsorship of the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA), to prohibit workplace discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity;
• Co-sponsorship of the Tax Equity for Health Plan Beneficiaries Act (DP Tax), to equalize tax treatment for employer-provided health coverage for domestic partners;
• Co-sponsorship of the Respect for Marriage Act (RMA), to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA);
• Co-sponsorship of the Early Treatment for HIV Act (ETHA), to allow states to provide Medicaid coverage to HIV-positive persons;
• Co-sponsorship of the Uniting American Families Act (UAFA), to provide same-sex partners of U.S. citizens equal immigration access;
• House vote on Rep. Mark Souder’s amendment that would have prohibited funding for any program which distributes sterile needles or syringes for the hypodermic injection of any illegal drug;
• Senate vote on Sen. Robert Bennett’s amendment to suspend the issuance of marriage licenses to same sex couples in the District of Columbia and require a referendum;
• Senate votes on the nominations of Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor to the U.S. Supreme Court.

A PDF of the entire scorecard can be viewed below or online at www.hrc.org/scorecard.

For each two year session of Congress since 1989, HRC has published a Congressional Scorecard that includes key Congressional votes and co-sponsorship of pro-LGBT legislation. It is a critical tool to assist fair-minded Americans in assessing the relative support or non-support of Members of Congress and to advocate for pro-equality legislation.

The Human Rights Campaign is America’s largest civil rights organization working to achieve lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender equality. By inspiring and engaging all Americans, HRC strives to end discrimination against LGBT citizens and realize a nation that achieves fundamental fairness and equality for all.

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111thCongressional_Scorecard

Breaking News from HRC: Administration Drops Defense of Discriminatory DOMA Law

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 23, 2011

Administration Drops Defen

se of Discriminatory DOMA Law

HRC praises move as rare and extraordinary step for same-sex couples and their families

WASHINGTON – The Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender civil rights organization, today praised the Obama Administration’s decision not to continue its defense of the so-called “Defense of Marriage Act” (DOMA) in court. DOMA denies federal recognition and benefits to legally married same-sex couples and purports to allow states to deny recognition to those couples as well.

“This is a monumental decision for the thousands of same-sex couples and their families who want nothing more than the same rights and dignity afforded to other married couples,” said HRC President Joe Solmonese. “As the President has stated previously, DOMA unfairly discriminates against Americans and we applaud him for fulfilling his oath to defend critical constitutional principles.”

HRC has engaged in an effort to encourage the administration to abandon its defense of the statute for years, including writing to the President directly and encouraging our members and supporters to contact the administration as well.

Under federal law, the Department of Justice must report to Congress its intent not to defend the statute and it is likely that anti-LGBT leaders in Congress will take up its defense.

“Congressional leaders must not waste another taxpayer dollar defending this patently unconstitutional law,” said Solmonese. “The federal government has no business picking and choosing which legal marriages they want to recognize. Instead Congress should take this opportunity to wipe the stain of marriage discrimination from our laws.”

DOMA, passed in 1996, denies married same-sex couples over 1,000 rights, benefits and responsibilities tied to marriage under federal law. These include Social Security survivors' benefits, family and medical leave, equal compensation as federal employees, and immigration rights, among many others.

The Human Rights Campaign is America’s largest civil rights organization working to achieve lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender equality. By inspiring and engaging all Americans, HRC strives to end discrimination against LGBT citizens and realize a nation that achieves fundamental fairness and equality for all.

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Background memo pdf is below and here: http://www.hrc.org/documents/DOMA.pdf

Information on HRC’s blog: http://www.hrcbackstory.org/2011/02/decision-time-obama-administration-faces-new-legal-question-in-same-sex-marriage-lawsuits/

DOMA