Columbus Chamber sees signs of hope in economy

clipped from columbus.bizjournals.com It may be getting better. According to a ColumbusChamber report released Tuesday, a comparatively mild impact from the recession and predicted employment growth are causes for optimism in Central Ohio. “The expectation among economists is that the labor market will turn sometime during 2010, although even an increase in earnings among current workers will be positive for retail sales,” Chamber Chief Economist Bill LaFayette said in a release. Employment estimates for the eight-county Columbus metropolitan statistical area, which includes Morrow County, show a 1.9 percent decline in overall employment for the region from December 2007 to September 2009, compared with a 5.2 percent decline for the U.S. Retail employment for the region fell 4.5 percent in that time period, versus a 5.6 percent decline nationally.

Central Ohio has fared better of late because its retail sector, overbuilt in the 1980s and 1990s, went through its major culling during and after the 2001 recession, the report said. Retail employment dropped 18.1 percent from December 2000 to December 2007, according to the report.

“The return of regional retail to a more reasonable level of development suggests that retail growth in the Columbus MSA is possible once the economic recovery becomes solid,” LaFayette said.

The report was presented Tuesday as part of a retail summit hosted by Franklin County Commissioners and the chamber. The message was cautious optimism. Ohio State University economics professor Lucia Dunn said the university’s Consumer Debt Stress Index, which measures consumer concern about personal debt, has been improving. The monthly nationwide survey peaked in July, with consumers 55 percent more worried about their debt than in the baseline month of January 2006, but has fallen in every month since then and sits at 18 percent more worried after November.

“The drop in debt stress is good news,” she said. “It’s still 18 percent above 2006, but the decline is good news for all of us.”

Less concern about debt means more consumption, she said.

Steve Mansfield, senior policy and management analyst for the Franklin County Office of Management and Budget, stressed the importance of a strong retail presence to the county’s coffers, with sales tax collections accounting for more than 40 percent of the county budget. He said his office is forecasting $124.4 million in sales tax revenue for the county this year and more than $124 million in 2010.